What are the chances Texas makes it to Omaha? Pretty high, history suggests
AUSTIN (KXAN) — As Texas begins the postseason Friday at home against Houston Christian as the top seed in the Austin regional, the numbers are on the Longhorns’ side getting through to the Men’s College World Series.
Baseball is a strange game, however, so it’s never a sure thing. History tells a story that, more often than not, a No. 1 regional seed typically ends up at the mecca of college baseball — Omaha, Nebraska.
Since 1999, when the current NCAA tournament format was put in place, a No. 1 regional seed has made it to the MCWS 74% of the time. Last season, seven of the eight top regional seeds advanced to Omaha, with Florida being the lone No. 3 seed to advance. In 2016 and 2022, only four top seeds made it through, but that has been the low-water mark for such seeds since only three advanced in 2003.
Numbers aside, Longhorns head coach Jim Schlossnagle knows nothing is promised in the postseason.
“Anything can happen,” he said. “We need to stay in the moment, and it’s not always going to be like this. You can’t assume things are going to happen, so we have to continue to enjoy each other and win. Everybody is either coming off a rough period or one is about to come. We can beat anyone we play, or we can lose to anybody we play.”
Digging further into the numbers, No. 2 seeds, like UTSA in the Austin regional, get through 16% of the time. Getting to Omaha also means surviving a best-of-3 super regional series with another regional champion.
MORE THAN THE SCORE: Stay up to date on sports stories like these, and sign up for our More than the Score sports newsletter at kxan.com/newsletters
No. 3 seeds make it 8.5%, and only three No. 4 seeds have advanced to Omaha, a 1.5% rate. Oral Roberts made it in 2023, Stony Brook in 2012, and the only No. 4 seed to win the national title was Fresno State in 2008. The Bulldogs won it all in a field of seven top regional seeds.
Perhaps Texas should be grateful they didn’t get the No. 1 overall seed, like they were projected to reach for most of the year. Since 1999, the No. 1 overall seed has won the MCWS twice, with Tennessee last season and Miami in 1999. The No. 2 seed, however, is tied with the No. 5 seed for the most championship wins with three. The Longhorns are this year’s No. 2 seed overall, and North Carolina is No. 5.
Texas won the 2002 national title as a No. 5 seed, and then Rice won it the next year as the same seed.
History is just that, however. It’s behind this year’s Longhorns, and their forward-looking mentality has helped them put together one of the program’s best regular seasons in its storied history. Texas first baseman Kimble Schuessler said the way to pay off a great regular season is to finish the job, and by doing that, they have to think that May 30 is February 14.
“It’s our Opening Day mentality. We treat every day like it’s Opening Day,” he said. “You never know when it’s going to be your last game to play. You might as well go out there every day like it’s Opening Day.”
