Hurricane Season 2025 has arrived: What to expect
AUSTIN (KXAN) – The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is officially off and running with Sunday marking the very first day of the season.
Multiple factors go into determining our season, including El-Niño and La-Niña, sea surface temperatures, Saharan dust, and more. So, with multiple forecasts out there, the First Warning Weather Team has put together a few key details you need to know for the hurricane season.
How long is the Atlantic Hurricane Season?
The Atlantic Hurricane Season begins on Sunday, June 1, and runs through Sunday, November 30. On average, the beginning of the hurricane season and the end of the season usually see lower activity with the peak of hurricane season landing on September 10 when sea surface temperatures are the warmest.
Remember, the key ingredients for a tropical cyclone to develop are: sea surface temperatures at 80° or above, low upper-level wind shear, abundant moisture, and a pre-existing disturbance.
2025 Forecast
Colorado State University released their annual forecast on Thursday, April 3, calling for an above-average season with 17 named storms, with 9 of them becoming hurricanes and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes, or Category 3 or stronger. This is just above average, which is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 of those becoming major hurricanes. Over the past 5 years, only one season was right at average, with each of the other 4 years marking an above-average season.
CSU cites a warmer-than-normal tropical Atlantic along with ENSO neutral conditions. They are predicting a potential La Niña farther into the season, which would favor storm formation and intensification.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its forecast on Thursday, May 22, and is also calling for an above-average season. Their forecast calls for 13-19 named storms, 6-10 of those becoming a hurricane, and 3-5 of those becoming a major hurricane. They are calling for a 60% chance of the season of an above-average season overall. They looked at warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for more activity from the West African Monsoon.
They have also announced an upgrade to the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System, which will give a 5% improvement to their tracking and intensity forecasts.
Staying Prepared for Hurricane Season
While storms develop over water and make landfall on the coast, Texas should always be weather aware and stay prepared should a storm hit the Texas Coast. While your area may be outside the cone of uncertainty, the effects of a tropical development can be felt for hundreds of miles away.
Meteorologist Kristen Currie breaks down what you need to know now in order to stay safe during the hurricane season.
2025 Atlantic Hurricane Names
The list of names is recycled every six years, with the most destructive storm names being retired from future years. Names such as Katrina, Harvey, Ian, and Sandy are just a few of the names no longer used. This year, the list begins with Andrea and ends with Wendy.
Development Zones
Based on conditions through the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf, during the first two months of the season, development is more likely along the East Coast of the United States and around the Gulf. While the development of storms during this time is less frequent, all the ingredients are there for some type of development.
As we move into the peak of the season, conditions become more favorable throughout the Atlantic, including a reduction in Saharan dust and an increase in ocean temperatures along with weaker wind shear. The number of storms and their intensity dramatically increase.
2024 Season Recap
The 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season was one for the books as it was an above-average season, but one storm in particular was of interest. In June of 2024, Beryl began its journey in the Atlantic, through the Lesser Antilles and into the Caribbean, becoming a Category 5 storm. As it approached and crossed the Yucatan Peninsula, the storm lost steam and was downgraded to a Tropical Storm before rapidly intensifying into a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall near Matagorda, Texas. This was the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane on record for the Atlantic Ocean.
Hurricanes Kirk and Helene intensified into Category 4 hurricanes during their development, with Rafael becoming a Category 3 storm late in the season.
The best way to think of the season is that it only ever takes one to hit near you for it to be considered an active season.
