How many 100° days will Austin get this year? Here's what the First Warning Weather team predicts
Editor’s Note: The video above shows the latest forecast from the KXAN First Warning Weather team.
AUSTIN (KXAN) — Each year, we ask the KXAN First Warning Weather team to predict how many times Austin will hit the century mark.
Of course, making predictions so early in the year is not scientifically accurate. As our meteorologists will tell you, accurately forecasting out more than seven days ahead is incredibly difficult. Last year, the team predicted anywhere from 54 to 76 days of triple-digit heat, but Austin ended up with 32.
This year, the team is predicting an above-average year when it comes to 100° days. Austin averages 29 days at or above 100° in a typical year. Here’s what the team is predicting for 2025:
Rich Segal: 58 days
“I guessed too high in 2024 as I figured the ongoing drought and the lack of soil moisture would allow for my guess of 76 to easily be reached. But the continued warming of our planet gives me pause for concern that we will have more triple-digit days than we would normally have (29). I will go further to suggest our first triple-digit high will happen in May. By the way, I was not disappointed with the final number of 32 100-degree days.” – Rich Segal
Kristen Currie: 56 days
“We’ve had hotter than average summers for the last 10+ years, and I have no reason to believe we’d break that trend this year. With the recent lack of rain and not much to delay the onset of summertime heat, I believe we’ll likely get an early start to our days in the triple digits. I don’t expect our hottest summer on record… but it won’t be a walk in the park either.” – Kristen Currie
Freddy Vela: 45 days
“My prediction is 45 this year. Triple digits are always hard to predict but it seems like we are on a trend of above average but not too far above average. Or maybe it’s just wishful thinking that we won’t be that hot this year. If we get some rainfall within the July and August months, that will definitely knock the numbers down a bit. So 45 it is!” – Freddy Vela
Jim Spencer: 41 days
“It looks like the upper-level ‘heat dome’ might set up over the western U.S. again this summer, similar to last year. If that holds, I think we’ll see another hot summer — definitely above normal, as usual these days — but probably with fewer triple-digit days than the worst years we’ve had. Still, I’m expecting more than last year’s 30, mainly because the extreme drought means dry ground, which doesn’t absorb heat well and leads to hotter afternoons. All that considered, I’m predicting around 41 days of 100° or higher.” – Jim Spencer
Nick Bannin: 40 days
“Much of the forecast hinges on how much rain we can get the rest of May and early June before our storm season shuts off. A drier May/June will mean that our soils are drier going into summer, and that usually means hotter days. We’ve currently had a drier winter and drier spring than last year, which had closer to average triple digit days. Given the drier conditions leading into summer, I’m going hotter-than-normal. One wildcard would be if we can get a tropical system to bring rain this summer, that would then probably knock our triple digit count down, but that’s a big IF.” – Nick Bannin
Tommy House: 38 days
“I’m going with 38 days. Most of Central Texas is fighting a drought, which means the soil is dry. During a drought, soil moisture is depleted, which limits evaporation. We’ve had several HOT summers in Austin in recent years, and I expect another warmer than normal season with plenty of triple digit days.” – Tommy House
Here are some 100° facts for Austin:
- 2011 had the most triple-digit days in recorded history, with 90
- 12 years have failed to reach 100° since records began, most recently in 1987
- The hottest temperature ever recorded was 112°, on Sept. 5, 2000 and Aug. 28, 2011
- The earliest 100° day on record was May 4, 1984
- The latest 100° day on record was Oct. 2, in both 1923 and 1938
- The average first and last 100° days are July 4 and Aug. 30
- Aug. 10 has hit 100° more than any other calendar date
