Oil could spike to US$200 if Hormuz remains shut, Fesharaki warns

Published Tue, Mar 31, 2026 · 03:10 PM

[LONDON] Oil could surge to US$150 or US$200 a barrel if the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz persists over the next six to eight weeks because of the Iran war, according to energy-market consultancy FGE NexantECA.

“Every week, 100 million barrels of oil is not going through, and every month, 400 million barrels are not going through,” chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg Television on Tuesday (Mar 31). “So, within a period of time, these losses to the market will be astronomical.”

Oil has roared higher this month as the war between the US, Israel and Iran rocks the Middle East, with the Strait of Hormuz closed to all but a handful of vessels and Persian Gulf producers shutting-in millions of barrels of daily supply.

Futures were volatile on Tuesday, with a fresh attack on a tanker lifting prices, but a report of President Donald Trump telling aides he’s willing to end the campaign with the waterway still closed boosting appetite for risk.

Fesharaki dismissed the effectiveness of verbal interventions – including those from President Trump about possibly ending the conflict – saying the physical reality of supply disruptions that would ultimately drive prices. “The market will choke, and the prices will go up,” he said. “It doesn’t matter what the president says on the political front.” BLOOMBERG