Transcript: Trump Spirals at Rally as Fox Drops Bomb on GOP Chances

Cohen: Yes, if you look at the poll numbers, it certainly suggests that Democrats should win in Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Texas, possibly Iowa, possibly Kansas. Here’s the problem—

Sargent: Alaska.

Cohen: And Alaska too. Thank you. I forgot Alaska. And then there’s, you know, Michigan—we could go either way at this point, it seems to have tightened a little bit. The other races, like South Carolina and Mississippi, I’m more skeptical those things are going to flip.

But here’s the problem for Democrats. All of these races, except for North Carolina and Maine, are in states where Trump won by double digits in 2024. I mean, it’s unprecedented for a party to flip this many seats that are solid red states in one election. We’re talking about it happening in two, three, or four states. That’s kind of crazy.

That’s kind of crazy. It is crazy. And even to suggest this could happen just seems completely outlandish. But you can’t deny what the polls are telling us.

And the polls in Texas have shown James Talarico ahead pretty much since the summer. Same with Sherrod Brown in Ohio. Same with Mary Peltola in Alaska. You know, Adam Hamilton is routinely now leading in the polls in Kansas, and Roger Marshall is running one of the worst Senate campaigns, I’d argue, in the country.

So yeah, I mean, it’s crazy to think that we are at this place where Democrats could win so many places that they just have not won in years. But the data is what the data is, and the polling is what the polling is, and the early vote is what the early vote is. And it certainly suggests that that’s where things are headed. Again, it’s a question of 51 seats versus 53 or 54 seats. I think that is really the question that we don’t know the answer to at this point.

Sargent: And we should stress that polls can be wrong, if they’re off a few points, right? If they’re off a few points in a direction that favors Republicans, all of these races basically don’t go the way we want, or most of them don’t. But the funny thing is that for all the talk about the polls being wrong, what history tells us is that in midterms during the Trump era, the polls actually haven’t been that wrong.

And just to underscore this point too: basically, Democrats really only have to win two states that Trump carried by double digits to get the majority, provided they get Maine and North Carolina, which looks pretty likely. So you can see a path. It’s doable. As remarkable as it is, it’s doable, and so is a slightly larger majority, too.

Cohen: I just want to say this though. I mean, you’re right about the polling. The polling could be off, the polling could be wrong. But there’s so many other data points that just back up this idea that this is going to be a huge election for Democrats.

It’s the performance in off-year elections, which were unprecedentedly high for Democrats, overperformance in 2024. This is this year and last year. It’s the enthusiasm in primaries, the number of Democratic voters turning out.

It’s the early voting, which just suggests that Democrats are motivated to vote, and that even occasional voters who lean Democratic are turning out in record numbers. You’re seeing this in North Carolina, you’re seeing this in Texas, you’re seeing this in Virginia, to some extent Florida.

I mean, I think the only reason why so many of us are just like, I don’t know, is because so many of these battles are being fought in red territory, in Republican territory.

If these were purple states, I don’t think there’d be a question of where this is going. But you have to sort of take it with a grain of salt when you’re in a place like Texas where Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in 30 years.

I mean, in Kansas, they haven’t won a Senate race since the 1930s. So the idea that they’re going to win—I mean, it could happen. I think it might happen. But I mean, let’s just be honest, that’s an earthquake event for that to happen.

Sargent: It certainly is. Michael Cohen, always awesome to talk to you, man. Thanks for all that.

Cohen: Pleasure. Thanks for having me.