Trump Is Weighing Two Options for Iran. They’re Both Horrific.

But don’t be fooled by these juvenile volleys on social media, or the fact that the ceasefire is still holding. The latest reporting suggests that the war is entering a more dangerous phase. The White House is considering several options to increase pressure on Iran, and none suggest that peace is on the horizon: They involve either a massive military escalation, the destruction of the global economy, or both.

It has been three weeks since Trump’s threat of nuclear annihilation—that “a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” if Iran didn’t unconditionally surrender. Iran did not surrender, of course. Instead, a day later, it agreed to a ceasefire with the U.S. and reopening the Strait of Hormuz; several days later, the U.S. went ahead and launched its own blockade of the vital trade route. And that is why the price of oil, natural gas, fertilizer, and so much more continues to wreak havoc around the world.

The Groundhog Day nature of this ceasefire—Hormuz opens briefly then closes; talks occur but never seem to settle on anything; Trump continues to issue deranged threats, and Iran mocks them—has created the false sense that this conflict is markedly less volatile than it was three weeks ago. Trump, yes, has quieted talk of nuking Tehran, but as peace talks have faltered, he is weighing scenarios to cause Iran more pain—all of which would also cause plenty of pain for other countries, including the U.S.